Global Container Shipping: Overcapacity, Security Shifts : What to expect for the Next Six Months

As 2025 draws to a close, the container shipping industry stands at the intersection of two powerful forces: a historic wave of new vessel deliveries that is pushing global capacity well beyond demand, and the lingering effects of two years of maritime security disruptions centred around the Red Sea. Together, they have reshaped freight markets, altered carrier behaviour, and introduced a new level of strategic caution across global logistics networks.

This month, the picture is becoming clearer. Despite temporary spikes in freight rates earlier in the year due to diversions around Africa, the structural reality is now asserting itself: too many ships, not enough cargo, and a gradually stabilising but still fragile security situation in the Middle East. The following report summarises the major developments in November 2025, and examines what shippers and investors can expect over the next three to six months.

Overcapacity Dominates the Narrative

The industry’s central challenge remains unchanged: new vessel deliveries continue to arrive faster than global demand can absorb. The orderbook — placed largely during the 2021–2022 freight-rate boom — is now maturing. Several major carriers, tonnage providers and brokers have warned in recent weeks that global container fleet growth will remain well above organic trade growth through 2026.

This month, large shipyards in Asia have delivered several high-capacity vessels, some exceeding 20,000 TEU, at a time when cargo volumes across the main East–West lanes have been seasonally stable but far from exceptional. Utilisation rates on select Asia–Europe and Trans-Pacific services have hovered in the low-to-mid 80% range, a clear indicator that capacity is outstripping demand.

Freight rates reflect this imbalance. After firming earlier in the year due to Red Sea diversions, rates have softened again as reroutings stabilise and carriers face fewer disruptions. Spot prices on key corridors continue to show week-to-week volatility, but the underlying direction remains downward. The greatest pressure is visible on contract negotiations, where shippers are pushing for more flexible terms and lower baseline rates heading into early 2026.

Across the industry, a cautious and defensive tone is emerging. Some carriers have already described next year as “challenging” or “margin-tightening,” particularly for operators heavily exposed to spot markets.

Commercial Adjustments and Tactical Measures

With little room to manoeuvre on capacity in the short term, carriers have intensified tactical measures to preserve yield. Blank sailings have become more common across multiple alliances, particularly on high-capacity loops where seasonal demand weakens in Q1. Slower steaming, a familiar tool from past downturns, is re-appearing as a cost-control measure.

However, none of these tactics can fundamentally reverse the mathematics of oversupply. The global fleet is simply growing too quickly. Several analysts note that the orderbook will continue to deliver large vessels well into 2027, even if some owners attempt late-stage deferrals or cascade older ships into secondary regional trades.

The seasonal reduction in Trans-Pacific and Asia–Europe demand in the early months of the year will amplify these pressures. Unless global trade volumes receive a large, unexpected stimulus, carriers will need increasingly aggressive network adjustments to prevent utilisation from falling further.

Security: A Cautious but Noticeable Shift in Red Sea Dynamics

The other defining factor of the past two years — maritime insecurity triggered by Houthi attacks — shows tentative signs of easing. Following a ceasefire in Gaza earlier this quarter, the Houthis signalled a halt to attacks on commercial shipping. This announcement has been met with cautious optimism by carriers, charterers, and insurers.

A limited but perceptible flow of container traffic has begun returning to the Suez route, reducing the number of Cape-of-Good-Hope diversions that had stretched transit times and increased bunker consumption. However, nobody in the industry is treating the pause as permanent. The risk of a sudden flare-up remains high, and war-risk premiums continue to reflect that uncertainty.

The memory of earlier 2025 incidents — including the sinking or severe damage of several commercial vessels and the capture of crew members — is still fresh. For many operators, a full restoration of confidence will require months of stable conditions without further escalation. For now, routing decisions through the Red Sea remain heavily risk-assessed and conditional.

What the Next Three Months Are Likely to Bring (Dec 2025 – Feb 2026)

The coming quarter is expected to be shaped by three intertwined trends: seasonal demand softening, continued structural oversupply, and a complex security transition.

First, freight rates are likely to remain under pressure throughout Q1. Without the strong peak-season uplift that typically precedes the end of the year, carriers will face a quiet period in which pricing power is limited and operational costs remain high.

Second, as more ships deliver in early 2026, the overall fleet capacity will expand further. Commercial strategies such as blank sailings will continue, but will not fully counteract the arrival of new large vessels.

Third, the industry will continue to test the waters on Red Sea routing. If the current calm holds, more services may shift back to the Suez Canal, gradually restoring shorter transit times. But insurers are unlikely to retreat too quickly, and shippers will continue to hedge risk with alternative routings, buffer inventory, or diversified schedules.

For shippers, this window represents a strong negotiating period: contract terms, flexibility clauses, and rate agreements can often be secured at more favourable levels when carriers face utilisation difficulties.

Outlook for tye Next 6 Months 

Looking further ahead, the container shipping sector is expected to remain in a low-rate, oversupplied environment. Fleet expansion will continue and global trade growth — while steady — shows no signs of returning to the double-digit patterns seen in earlier decades.

Carriers with diversified operations, including port services, inland logistics, and integrated supply-chain products, may demonstrate greater resilience. Meanwhile, pure ocean-carriers reliant on spot markets face a more uncertain landscape. Some industry observers suggest that the coming year may test the limits of current alliances and could even spark a new wave of consolidation or strategic restructuring.

On the security front, a cautious optimism may grow if the Red Sea stabilises further. Any sustained calm would encourage a normalisation of routing patterns and potentially bring small reductions in insurance premiums. But geopolitical conditions remain fragile, and the industry is preparing for rapid response should tensions resurface.

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 Conclusion (Concise and Actionable points)

For Shippers:

Use the next 2–3 months to renegotiate contracts or secure short-term agreements with favourable terms. Maintain flexible routing plans and keep war-risk assessments updated for every voyage through the Red Sea.